 &MODEL
 NLIST   =           1,
 NSTEP   =        2000,
 EPSI    =  1.0000000E-07,
 WGHT    =   1.000000    ,
 NOBS    =         120,
 NAMY    =   'TOTFLOW',
 NVAXZ   =           4,
 NVAX    =           4,
 NORDER  =           1,
 NVAZ    =           0,
 NLAMZ   =           0,
 NLAMY   =           1,
 NLAMX   =           1,
 NSCALE  =           1,
 NEXPY   =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NCOV    =           0,
 VARNAME = BC2+AU+PR,
 NVARIANT        =           5
 /
 &AUTOCOR
 RHO     = 2*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 PI      =  0.990000000000000     ,  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTPI    =           1,   538976288,
 MATFILE = R320km.in                                                                                                                 
                                       
 /
 &YBOXCOX
 VLY     =  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTLY    =           1,
 NUMLXY  =           0
 /
 &XBOXCOX
 NUMX    =           1,           2,           3,           4, 46*0,
 NUMLX   = 4*1, 46*0,
 VLX     = 10*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 NTLX    =           1, 9*0
 /
 &YXZDATA
 YXZFILE = Canada1976.in                                                                   ,
 YXZFMT  = (5e15.5)                                                                        
 /

VARIABLE       MINIMUM         MEAN          MAXIMUM   NULL OBS.      SCALE
DEPENDENT
TOTFLOW     0.2577000D+04  0.1476588D+06  0.2736000D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
INDEPENDENT
POP         0.8591300D+05  0.5297039D+06  0.2802800D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
REVE        0.3698300D+04  0.4258776D+04  0.4808200D+04     0     0.1000000D-02
LANGFR      0.5600000D+01  0.7329333D+02  0.9990000D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
UTILITY     0.5655600D-04  0.4915871D-01  0.1172800D+01     0     0.1000000D+01
CONSTANT    0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01     0     0.1000000D+01


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTILITY     CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.7451D+02  0.3456D+03  0.4914D+07  0.1889D+06

REVE         0.1342D-01  0.1000D+01  0.4639D+01  0.6595D+05  0.2536D+04

LANGFR       0.2893D-02  0.2156D+00  0.1000D+01  0.1422D+05  0.5466D+03

UTILITY      0.2035D-06  0.1516D-04  0.7034D-04  0.1000D+01  0.3845D-01

CONSTANT     0.5293D-05  0.3944D-03  0.1829D-02  0.2601D+02  0.1000D+01


INITIAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                                                                DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)


POP           X1  0.1389205D+01  0.5457770D-01     25.4537107  0.4002112D-09  0.3872510D+00      1.3892049
                                                                              0.4970914D+00      1.3892049

REVE          X1  0.8322593D+00  0.6932686D+00      1.2004861 -0.6521993D-09  0.2885581D+02      0.8322593
                                                                              0.3626500D-01      0.8322593

LANGFR        X1  0.6643968D-01  0.5550501D-01      1.1970033 -0.8357800D-09  0.1338513D+03      0.0664397
                                                                              0.1916400D-02      0.0664397

UTILITY       X1  0.6335200D+00  0.1496708D-01     42.3275532  0.2744231D-08  0.1902915D+07      0.6335200
                                                                              0.2843971D+02      0.6335200

CONSTANT      X0  0.4955077D+00  0.9808520D+00      0.5051808 -0.4526935D-09  0.7316608D+05      0.4955077
                                                                              0.9221363D-01      0.4955077

VAR(W)            0.1312324D+00  0.1694202D-01      7.7459667  0.0000000D+00

INITIAL VALUES
 
RHO1           0.0000000D+00
PI1            0.9900000D+00
 
LAM(Y)         0.0000000D+00
LAM(X1)        0.0000000D+00


LOG-LIKELIHOOD =  0.3396262D+03

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.8850
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.8810

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9441
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9422

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1860993D+00

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.4950736D-12
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1312324D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.7100297D+00   Upper Bound =  0.7100297D+00




initialization cards for control routine follow - -  id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size 
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -  
and starting direction  (relative parameter increments for 1st step)
identification line
         4      2000   0.1E+01   0.1E-06
  0.00000E+00  0.45951E+01  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00
  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3396262428D+03  0.00000D+00  0.45951D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry     5  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3574289056D+03  0.10577D-01  0.45951D+01  0.49507D-01 -0.69013D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry     8  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3594507225D+03  0.40174D-01  0.45951D+01  0.86369D-01 -0.51569D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    13  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3756384258D+03  0.80630D+00  0.45952D+01  0.47755D-01 -0.73026D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    17  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3768595513D+03  0.85279D+00  0.45629D+01  0.43885D-01 -0.50931D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    19  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3770717099D+03  0.86124D+00  0.45335D+01  0.54802D-01 -0.43083D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    21  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3770827507D+03  0.88333D+00  0.44866D+01  0.54622D-01 -0.43243D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    30  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3776598081D+03  0.91981D+00  0.55148D+00  0.51903D-01 -0.38945D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    33  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3776617176D+03  0.92098D+00  0.45946D+00  0.51871D-01 -0.38878D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    36  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3781389356D+03  0.10032D+01 -0.36572D+00  0.59270D-01 -0.46650D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    39  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3781469117D+03  0.10099D+01 -0.22345D+00  0.58916D-01 -0.46875D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    41  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3781473838D+03  0.10143D+01 -0.24009D+00  0.58769D-01 -0.46809D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    43  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3781473850D+03  0.10143D+01 -0.24097D+00  0.58762D-01 -0.46837D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    44  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3781473850D+03  0.10143D+01 -0.24095D+00  0.58762D-01 -0.46837D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    45  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3781473850D+03  0.10143D+01 -0.24095D+00  0.58762D-01 -0.46837D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    47  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3781473850D+03  0.10143D+01 -0.24095D+00  0.58762D-01 -0.46837D-01


the function (fcn) has not improved by    0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -


therefore the run has been terminated
  -0.3781473850D+03  0.10143D+01 -0.24095D+00  0.58762D-01 -0.46837D-01


all numbers of last entry refer to final pt. of run


the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  -0.3781473850D+03 for entry   47 - - x(i) follows
  0.10143E+01 -0.24095E+00  0.58762E-01 -0.46837E-01



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=   47 nst=   15


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTILITY     CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.1013D+03  0.1529D+04  0.4071D+07 -0.1032D+08

REVE         0.9869D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1509D+02  0.4018D+05 -0.1018D+06

LANGFR       0.6542D-03  0.6629D-01  0.1000D+01  0.2663D+04 -0.6750D+04

UTILITY      0.2456D-06  0.2489D-04  0.3754D-03  0.1000D+01 -0.2534D+01

CONSTANT    -0.9692D-07 -0.9821D-05 -0.1482D-03 -0.3946D+00  0.1000D+01


FINAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T      STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                   (CONDIT.)        (CONDIT.)      (CONDIT.)                   DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)
                                                    (PAR = 0)      (PAR = 1)

POP           X1  0.5141301D+01  0.1451694D+01      3.5415865                -0.1958609D-07  0.3841002D+00      1.3779018
                                 0.1574313D+00     32.6574366                                0.3961338D+00      1.5057357

REVE          X1  0.3341642D+01  0.2126171D+01      1.5716717                -0.1406012D-07  0.3892168D+02      1.1225793
                                 0.2027539D+01      1.6481275                                0.3659091D+02      1.2110295

LANGFR        X1  0.7172328D+00  0.1774344D+00      4.0422421                -0.7862160D-08  0.5871419D+03      0.2914393
                                 0.1528451D+00      4.6925470                                0.6998620D+03      0.3169393

UTILITY       X1  0.9099308D+00  0.2163702D+00      4.2054350                 0.1692249D-07  0.1563835D+07      0.5206335
                                 0.4306024D-01     21.1315780                                0.3271641D+08      0.6558488

CONSTANT      X0 -0.5401712D+02  0.1606371D+02     -3.3626802                -0.2022569D-08 -0.3963081D+07    -26.8394451
                                 0.1342167D+02     -4.0246212                               -0.3745851D+07    -28.9515672

VAR(W)            0.1791906D+00  0.6357066D-01      2.8187635                 0.0000000D+00
                                 0.3167430D-01      5.6572877
 
RHO1      (E)     0.7675480D+00  0.7667895D-01     10.0098920                 0.3714993D-06
                                 0.7163498D-01     10.7147098
PI1       (E)     0.4400516D+00  0.3294861D+00      1.3355693     -1.6994598  0.1051476D-06
                                 0.3216402D+00      1.3681484     -1.7409155
 
LAM(Y)    (E)     0.5876236D-01  0.1462559D-01      4.0177782    -64.3555467  0.1734071D-05
LAM(X1)   (E)    -0.4683706D-01  0.2383704D-01     -1.9648862    -43.9164106 -0.1729959D-05


LOG-LIKELIHOOD = -0.1279714D+04

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.9710
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9689

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9796
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9781

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1498675D+06

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.5989272D-01
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1791906D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.8895787D+00   Upper Bound =  0.7697933D+00


CPU TIME:      1.61 sec
